All news · n=26 · sample · the other 8 times a bigger release came out in the same minute
Retail Sales m/m
First-minute move · last 12 months
33p
quiet minute ~9p
Biggest swing within 15 min
119p
Gold higher 15 min later
10/25
40% · chance ~50% · without 1 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
13/22
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
38%
n=16
Below forecast → up
69%
n=13
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Moderate mover: typical first-minute move 33 pips over the last 12 months (n=8), against ~9 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 22 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 25 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 34 releases
- 2026-10-15above forecast1 min −97p · 15 min later −80p
- 2026-09-16above forecast1 min +19p · 15 min later +42p
- 2026-08-14below forecast1 min +19p · 15 min later −75p
- 2026-07-16in line with forecast1 min +32p · 15 min later −207p
- 2026-06-17above forecast1 min +34p · 15 min later +79p
- 2026-05-14in line with forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −50p
- 2026-04-21above forecast1 min −37p · 15 min later −8p
- 2026-04-01above forecast1 min +41p · 15 min later +113p
- 2026-03-06above forecast1 min +363p · 15 min later +346p
- 2026-02-10below forecast1 min +60p · 15 min later +146p
- 2026-01-141 min −3p · 15 min later +41p
- 2025-12-16below forecast1 min +51p · 15 min later +25p
- 2025-11-25below forecast1 min +69p · 15 min later +43p
- 2025-09-16above forecast1 min −10p · 15 min later −13p
- 2025-08-15below forecast1 min +5p · 15 min later +71p
- 2025-07-17above forecast1 min −84p · 15 min later −139p
- 2025-06-17below forecast1 min +2p · 15 min later −18p
- 2025-05-15above forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +13panother release 10 min later
- 2025-04-16above forecast1 min −4p · 15 min later +53p
- 2025-03-17below forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later −8p
- 2025-02-14below forecast1 min +11p · 15 min later −55p
- 2025-01-16below forecast1 min +27p · 15 min later +52p
- 2024-12-17above forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later +2p
- 2024-11-15above forecast1 min −12p · 15 min later −21p
- 2024-10-17above forecast1 min −39p · 15 min later −20panother release 15 min later
- 2024-09-17above forecast1 min +20p · 15 min later −26p
- 2024-08-15above forecast1 min −42p · 15 min later −124p
- 2024-07-16above forecast1 min −54p · 15 min later −99p
- 2024-06-18below forecast1 min +62p · 15 min later +101p
- 2024-05-15below forecast1 min +134p · 15 min later +139p
- 2024-04-15above forecast1 min −48p · 15 min later −6p
- 2024-03-14below forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later +8p
- 2024-02-15below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +45p
- 2024-01-17above forecast1 min −44p · 15 min later −44p