All news · n=32 · sample
Non-Farm Payrolls
First-minute move · last 12 months
288p
quiet minute ~13p
Biggest swing within 15 min
407p
Gold higher 15 min later
17/31
55% · chance ~50% · without 1 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
10/31
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
32%
n=19
Below forecast → up
91%
n=11
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Strong mover: typical first-minute move 288 pips over the last 12 months (n=11), against ~13 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 31 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 31 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 32 releases
- 2026-10-02below forecast1 min +288p · 15 min later +232p
- 2026-09-04above forecast1 min −701p · 15 min later −807p
- 2026-08-07below forecast1 min +440p · 15 min later +620p
- 2026-07-02below forecast1 min +528p · 15 min later +678p
- 2026-06-05above forecast1 min −142p · 15 min later −172p
- 2026-05-08above forecast1 min −14p · 15 min later +109p
- 2026-03-06below forecast1 min +363p · 15 min later +346p
- 2026-02-11above forecast1 min −583p · 15 min later −164p
- 2026-01-091 min −19p · 15 min later +145p
- 2025-12-16above forecast1 min +51p · 15 min later +25p
- 2025-11-20above forecast1 min −38p · 15 min later −37p
- 2025-09-05below forecast1 min +202p · 15 min later +267p
- 2025-08-01below forecast1 min +114p · 15 min later +388p
- 2025-07-03above forecast1 min −129p · 15 min later −352p
- 2025-06-06above forecast1 min −75p · 15 min later −47p
- 2025-05-02above forecast1 min −74p · 15 min later −29p
- 2025-04-04above forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later −149p
- 2025-03-07below forecast1 min +75p · 15 min later +92p
- 2025-02-07below forecast1 min −5p · 15 min later −14p
- 2025-01-10above forecast1 min −73p · 15 min later +2p
- 2024-12-06above forecast1 min +30p · 15 min later +22p
- 2024-11-01below forecast1 min +82p · 15 min later +62p
- 2024-10-04above forecast1 min −152p · 15 min later −139p
- 2024-09-06below forecast1 min +74p · 15 min later +64panother release 15 min later
- 2024-08-02below forecast1 min +174p · 15 min later +168p
- 2024-07-05above forecast1 min −35p · 15 min later +53p
- 2024-06-07above forecast1 min −180p · 15 min later −168p
- 2024-05-03below forecast1 min +235p · 15 min later +72p
- 2024-04-05above forecast1 min −128p · 15 min later −68p
- 2024-03-08above forecast1 min +76p · 15 min later +160p
- 2024-02-02above forecast1 min −109p · 15 min later −164p
- 2024-01-05above forecast1 min −113p · 15 min later −68p