All news · n=35 · sample
ISM Manufacturing PMI
First-minute move · last 12 months
49p
quiet minute ~20p
Biggest swing within 15 min
138p
Gold higher 15 min later
20/34
59% · chance ~50% · without 1 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
17/32
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
40%
n=15
Below forecast → up
74%
n=19
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Moderate mover: typical first-minute move 49 pips over the last 12 months (n=12), against ~20 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 32 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 34 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 35 releases
- 2026-11-02above forecast1 min −37p · 15 min later −77p
- 2026-10-01below forecast1 min −54p · 15 min later −102p
- 2026-09-01below forecast1 min −26p · 15 min later +70p
- 2026-08-03above forecast1 min −36p · 15 min later +15p
- 2026-07-01below forecast1 min +99p · 15 min later +11p
- 2026-06-01above forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later +87p
- 2026-05-01below forecast1 min +80p · 15 min later +318p
- 2026-04-01above forecast1 min −83p · 15 min later +71p
- 2026-03-02above forecast1 min −99p · 15 min later 0p
- 2026-02-02above forecast1 min −43p · 15 min later +17p
- 2026-01-05below forecast1 min +71p · 15 min later +112p
- 2025-12-01below forecast1 min +43p · 15 min later −142p
- 2025-11-03below forecast1 min +39p · 15 min later +40p
- 2025-10-01above forecast1 min +14p · 15 min later −5p
- 2025-09-02below forecast1 min +40p · 15 min later +91p
- 2025-08-01below forecast1 min +84p · 15 min later +67p
- 2025-07-01above forecast1 min −14p · 15 min later −34p
- 2025-06-02below forecast1 min +46p · 15 min later +42p
- 2025-05-01above forecast1 min −71p · 15 min later −23p
- 2025-04-01below forecast1 min +14p · 15 min later −79p
- 2025-03-03below forecast1 min −3p · 15 min later +46p
- 2025-02-03above forecast1 min −20p · 15 min later −27p
- 2025-01-03above forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later −25p
- 2024-12-02above forecast1 min −2p · 15 min later −15p
- 2024-11-01below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +8p
- 2024-10-01below forecast1 min +8p · 15 min later −53p
- 2024-09-03below forecast1 min −33p · 15 min later +7p
- 2024-08-01below forecast1 min +57p · 15 min later −42p
- 2024-07-01below forecast1 min +24p · 15 min later +15p
- 2024-06-03below forecast1 min +78p · 15 min later +79p
- 2024-05-01below forecast1 min +1p · 15 min later +49p
- 2024-04-01above forecast1 min −66p · 15 min later −90p
- 2024-03-01below forecast1 min +45p · 15 min later +127panother release 15 min later
- 2024-02-01above forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later +26p
- 2024-01-03above forecast1 min +43p · 15 min later +15p