All news · n=33 · sample
CPI y/y
First-minute move · last 12 months
242p
quiet minute ~10p
Biggest swing within 15 min
326p
without 1 followed by another release within 15 min
Gold higher 15 min later
22/31
71% · chance ~50% · without 2 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
16/31
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
33%
n=9
Below forecast → up
100%
n=12
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Strong mover: typical first-minute move 242 pips over the last 12 months (n=11), against ~10 in a quiet minute at that hour · below forecast – 100% of the time up (n=12).
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 31 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 31 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 33 releases
- 2026-10-14above forecast1 min −242p · 15 min later −590p
- 2026-09-11in line with forecast1 min −445p · 15 min later +187p
- 2026-08-12in line with forecast1 min −326p · 15 min later −38p
- 2026-07-14below forecast1 min +545p · 15 min later +643p
- 2026-06-10in line with forecast1 min +279p · 15 min later +181p
- 2026-05-12above forecast1 min −39p · 15 min later +103p
- 2026-04-10below forecast1 min +138p · 15 min later +83p
- 2026-03-11in line with forecast1 min −23p · 15 min later −125p
- 2026-02-13below forecast1 min +275p · 15 min later +137p
- 2026-01-131 min +109p · 15 min later +187p
- 2025-12-18below forecast1 min +96p · 15 min later +164panother release 15 min later
- 2025-10-24below forecast1 min +292p · 15 min later +226p
- 2025-09-11in line with forecast1 min +79p · 15 min later +106panother release 15 min later
- 2025-08-12below forecast1 min +105p · 15 min later +137p
- 2025-07-15above forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later −26p
- 2025-06-11below forecast1 min +72p · 15 min later +154p
- 2025-05-13below forecast1 min +34p · 15 min later +68p
- 2025-04-10below forecast1 min +61p · 15 min later +2p
- 2025-03-12below forecast1 min +56p · 15 min later +48p
- 2025-02-12above forecast1 min −101p · 15 min later −21p
- 2025-01-15in line with forecast1 min +97p · 15 min later +35p
- 2024-12-11in line with forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +64p
- 2024-11-13in line with forecast1 min +94p · 15 min later +13p
- 2024-10-10above forecast1 min +69p · 15 min later +103p
- 2024-09-11in line with forecast1 min −36p · 15 min later −152p
- 2024-08-14below forecast1 min +8p · 15 min later +4p
- 2024-07-11below forecast1 min +177p · 15 min later +279p
- 2024-06-12below forecast1 min +80p · 15 min later +165p
- 2024-05-15in line with forecast1 min +134p · 15 min later +139p
- 2024-04-10above forecast1 min −132p · 15 min later −99p
- 2024-03-12above forecast1 min −33p · 15 min later +99p
- 2024-02-13above forecast1 min −70p · 15 min later −173p
- 2024-01-11above forecast1 min −82p · 15 min later −57p