All news · n=35 · sample
ADP Employment
First-minute move · last 12 months
30p
quiet minute ~11p
Biggest swing within 15 min
135p
without 3 followed by another release within 15 min
Gold higher 15 min later
11/21
52% · chance ~50% · without 14 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
7/20
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
22%
n=9
Below forecast → up
75%
n=12
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Moderate mover: typical first-minute move 30 pips over the last 12 months (n=12), against ~11 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 20 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 21 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 35 releases
- 2026-11-04above forecast1 min −65p · 15 min later −59p
- 2026-09-30above forecast1 min −32p · 15 min later +109panother release 15 min later
- 2026-09-02below forecast1 min −5p · 15 min later +17p
- 2026-08-05below forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +90p
- 2026-07-01below forecast1 min +54p · 15 min later +61p
- 2026-06-03above forecast1 min −5p · 15 min later −36p
- 2026-05-06below forecast1 min +27p · 15 min later +72p
- 2026-04-01above forecast1 min +15p · 15 min later −37panother release 15 min later
- 2026-03-04above forecast1 min +4p · 15 min later −9p
- 2026-02-04below forecast1 min +119p · 15 min later +205p
- 2026-01-07below forecast1 min +51p · 15 min later +117p
- 2025-12-03below forecast1 min +81p · 15 min later +88panother release 15 min later
- 2025-11-05above forecast1 min −36p · 15 min later +29p
- 2025-10-01below forecast1 min +64p · 15 min later −37p
- 2025-09-04below forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later −26panother release 15 min later
- 2025-07-30above forecast1 min +7p · 15 min later −17panother release 15 min later
- 2025-07-02below forecast1 min +85p · 15 min later +80p
- 2025-06-04below forecast1 min +51p · 15 min later +19p
- 2025-04-30below forecast1 min +47p · 15 min later +120panother release 15 min later
- 2025-04-02above forecast1 min −8p · 15 min later +72p
- 2025-03-05below forecast1 min +13p · 15 min later −6p
- 2025-02-05above forecast1 min −20p · 15 min later −33p
- 2025-01-08below forecast1 min +16p · 15 min later −7panother release 15 min later
- 2024-12-04below forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +126panother release 15 min later
- 2024-10-30above forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later −9panother release 15 min later
- 2024-10-02above forecast1 min −16p · 15 min later −45p
- 2024-09-05below forecast1 min +20p · 15 min later +32panother release 15 min later
- 2024-07-31below forecast1 min +4p · 15 min later +24panother release 15 min later
- 2024-07-03below forecast1 min +8p · 15 min later +42panother release 15 min later
- 2024-06-05below forecast1 min +8p · 15 min later +10p
- 2024-05-01above forecast1 min −12p · 15 min later −25p
- 2024-04-03above forecast1 min −26p · 15 min later −17p
- 2024-03-06below forecast1 min +18p · 15 min later −7p
- 2024-01-31below forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +24panother release 15 min later
- 2024-01-04above forecast1 min −7p · 15 min later −33panother release 15 min later