All news · n=35 · sample
ISM Services PMI
First-minute move · last 12 months
23p
quiet minute ~18p
Biggest swing within 15 min
118p
Gold higher 15 min later
15/33
45% · chance ~50% · without 2 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
11/26
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
31%
n=16
Below forecast → up
62%
n=16
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Weak mover: typical first-minute move 23 pips over the last 12 months (n=12), against ~18 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 26 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 33 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 35 releases
- 2026-11-04below forecast1 min +16p · 15 min later −52p
- 2026-10-05below forecast1 min +38p · 15 min later +64p
- 2026-09-03above forecast1 min −52p · 15 min later +40p
- 2026-08-05below forecast1 min +4p · 15 min later +232p
- 2026-07-06below forecast1 min 0p · 15 min later −16p
- 2026-06-03above forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later +68p
- 2026-05-05below forecast1 min +11p · 15 min later −67p
- 2026-04-06below forecast1 min +47p · 15 min later −77p
- 2026-03-04above forecast1 min +65p · 15 min later −64p
- 2026-02-04above forecast1 min −28p · 15 min later −98p
- 2026-01-07above forecast1 min −48p · 15 min later −168p
- 2025-12-03above forecast1 min −18p · 15 min later +63p
- 2025-11-05above forecast1 min −63p · 15 min later −32p
- 2025-10-03below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later −108p
- 2025-09-04above forecast1 min −43p · 15 min later −42p
- 2025-08-05below forecast1 min +47p · 15 min later +9p
- 2025-07-03in line with forecast1 min −4p · 15 min later −19p
- 2025-06-04below forecast1 min −8p · 15 min later +136p
- 2025-05-05above forecast1 min −38p · 15 min later −6p
- 2025-04-03below forecast1 min +42p · 15 min later +314p
- 2025-03-05above forecast1 min +11p · 15 min later +64p
- 2025-02-05below forecast1 min +30p · 15 min later +33p
- 2025-01-07above forecast1 min −64p · 15 min later −95p
- 2024-12-04below forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later +12p
- 2024-11-05above forecast1 min −43p · 15 min later −93panother release 10 min later
- 2024-10-03above forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later +51p
- 2024-09-05above forecast1 min −18p · 15 min later −3p
- 2024-08-05above forecast1 min +28p · 15 min later −36p
- 2024-07-03below forecast1 min +50p · 15 min later +75panother release 15 min later
- 2024-06-05above forecast1 min −18p · 15 min later −109p
- 2024-05-03below forecast1 min +75p · 15 min later −10p
- 2024-04-03below forecast1 min +46p · 15 min later +32p
- 2024-03-05below forecast1 min +96p · 15 min later +84p
- 2024-02-05above forecast1 min −61p · 15 min later −45p
- 2024-01-05below forecast1 min +60p · 15 min later +118p