All news · n=85 · sample · the other 58 times a bigger release came out in the same minute
Unemployment Claims
First-minute move · last 12 months
24p
quiet minute ~12p
Biggest swing within 15 min
96p
without 2 followed by another release within 15 min
Gold higher 15 min later
41/75
55% · chance ~50% · without 10 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
32/72
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
64%
n=33
Below forecast → up
52%
n=79
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Weak mover: typical first-minute move 24 pips over the last 12 months (n=36), against ~12 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 72 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 75 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 143 releases
- 2026-11-05below forecast1 min +10p · 15 min later +80p
- 2026-10-29below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +14p
- 2026-10-22below forecast1 min −3p · 15 min later +97p
- 2026-10-15in line with forecast1 min −97p · 15 min later −80p
- 2026-10-08below forecast1 min −100p · 15 min later −124p
- 2026-10-01below forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +67p
- 2026-09-24below forecast1 min 0p · 15 min later +21p
- 2026-09-17below forecast1 min −52p · 15 min later −194p
- 2026-09-10above forecast1 min −34p · 15 min later −222panother release 15 min later
- 2026-09-03above forecast1 min +139p · 15 min later +214p
- 2026-08-27below forecast1 min −15p · 15 min later −89p
- 2026-08-20below forecast1 min −12p · 15 min later +65p
- 2026-08-13above forecast1 min −12p · 15 min later +28p
- 2026-08-06below forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later +46p
- 2026-07-30below forecast1 min +30p · 15 min later +10p
- 2026-07-23below forecast1 min −35p · 15 min later −92panother release 15 min later
- 2026-07-16below forecast1 min +32p · 15 min later −207p
- 2026-07-09below forecast1 min +13p · 15 min later +52p
- 2026-07-02below forecast1 min +528p · 15 min later +678p
- 2026-06-25below forecast1 min +252p · 15 min later +241p
- 2026-06-18above forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later −95p
- 2026-06-11above forecast1 min +36p · 15 min later +68panother release 15 min later
- 2026-06-04above forecast1 min +5p · 15 min later +28p
- 2026-05-28above forecast1 min +76p · 15 min later +182p
- 2026-05-21below forecast1 min +4p · 15 min later +88p
- 2026-05-14above forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −50p
- 2026-05-07below forecast1 min +59p · 15 min later +126p
- 2026-04-30below forecast1 min +28p · 15 min later −14panother release 15 min later
- 2026-04-23above forecast1 min +40p · 15 min later −5p
- 2026-04-16below forecast1 min −5p · 15 min later +25p
- 2026-04-09above forecast1 min +37p · 15 min later +61panother release 3 min later
- 2026-04-02below forecast1 min −26p · 15 min later −54p
- 2026-03-26below forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later +43p
- 2026-03-19below forecast1 min +7p · 15 min later −558p
- 2026-03-12below forecast1 min +17p · 15 min later +38p
- 2026-03-05below forecast1 min −34p · 15 min later +106p
- 2026-02-26below forecast1 min −48p · 15 min later −83p
- 2026-02-19below forecast1 min −38p · 15 min later +103p
- 2026-02-12above forecast1 min +36p · 15 min later +134p
- 2026-02-05above forecast1 min +47p · 15 min later −186panother release 15 min later
- 2026-01-291 min −64p · 15 min later +42p
- 2026-01-221 min −49p · 15 min later −134p
- 2026-01-151 min −58p · 15 min later −188p
- 2026-01-08below forecast1 min −52p · 15 min later −16p
- 2025-12-31below forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later +67p
- 2025-12-24below forecast1 min +24p · 15 min later +55p
- 2025-12-18in line with forecast1 min +96p · 15 min later +164panother release 15 min later
- 2025-12-11above forecast1 min +14p · 15 min later +68p
- 2025-12-04below forecast1 min −44p · 15 min later −22p
- 2025-11-26below forecast1 min −47p · 15 min later −89p
- 2025-11-20below forecast1 min −38p · 15 min later −37p
- 2025-11-181 min −21p · 15 min later −4p
- 2025-09-25below forecast1 min −78p · 15 min later −132p
- 2025-09-18below forecast1 min −25p · 15 min later −19p
- 2025-09-11above forecast1 min +79p · 15 min later +106panother release 15 min later
- 2025-09-04above forecast1 min +3p · 15 min later −15p
- 2025-08-28below forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later −37p
- 2025-08-21above forecast1 min +3p · 15 min later +22p
- 2025-08-14below forecast1 min −79p · 15 min later +23p
- 2025-08-07above forecast1 min +36p · 15 min later +41p
- 2025-07-31below forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later +19p
- 2025-07-24below forecast1 min −9p · 15 min later −22panother release 15 min later
- 2025-07-17below forecast1 min −84p · 15 min later −139p
- 2025-07-10below forecast1 min −16p · 15 min later +36p
- 2025-07-03below forecast1 min −129p · 15 min later −352p
- 2025-06-26below forecast1 min −42p · 15 min later −90p
- 2025-06-18below forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later +19p
- 2025-06-12above forecast1 min +33p · 15 min later +41p
- 2025-06-05above forecast1 min +28p · 15 min later +2panother release 15 min later
- 2025-05-29above forecast1 min +31p · 15 min later +53p
- 2025-05-22below forecast1 min −17p · 15 min later −30p
- 2025-05-15in line with forecast1 min +23p · 15 min later +13panother release 10 min later
- 2025-05-08below forecast1 min −3p · 15 min later −24p
- 2025-05-01above forecast1 min +61p · 15 min later +101p
- 2025-04-24in line with forecast1 min +8p · 15 min later +6p
- 2025-04-17below forecast1 min +11p · 15 min later −9panother release 15 min later
- 2025-04-10in line with forecast1 min +61p · 15 min later +2p
- 2025-04-03below forecast1 min −4p · 15 min later −93p
- 2025-03-27below forecast1 min −10p · 15 min later −6p
- 2025-03-20below forecast1 min +2p · 15 min later +48p
- 2025-03-13below forecast1 min +51p · 15 min later +41p
- 2025-03-06below forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −11panother release 15 min later
- 2025-02-27above forecast1 min −21p · 15 min later −4p
- 2025-02-20above forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later −59p
- 2025-02-13below forecast1 min −7p · 15 min later +16p
- 2025-02-06above forecast1 min +18p · 15 min later −16p
- 2025-01-30below forecast1 min +7p · 15 min later +35panother release 15 min later
- 2025-01-23above forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later −24p
- 2025-01-16above forecast1 min +27p · 15 min later +52p
- 2025-01-08below forecast1 min +2p · 15 min later +27p
- 2025-01-02below forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later −23p
- 2024-12-26below forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later −39p
- 2024-12-19below forecast1 min −24p · 15 min later −1p
- 2024-12-12above forecast1 min +22p · 15 min later −39panother release 15 min later
- 2024-12-05above forecast1 min +34p · 15 min later −10p
- 2024-11-27below forecast1 min +18p · 15 min later +44p
- 2024-11-21below forecast1 min −11p · 15 min later +14p
- 2024-11-14below forecast1 min −21p · 15 min later +27p
- 2024-11-07below forecast1 min −15p · 15 min later +32p
- 2024-10-31below forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −26p
- 2024-10-24below forecast1 min −18p · 15 min later +11p
- 2024-10-17in line with forecast1 min −39p · 15 min later −20panother release 15 min later
- 2024-10-10above forecast1 min +69p · 15 min later +103p
- 2024-10-03above forecast1 min −7p · 15 min later −34p
- 2024-09-26below forecast1 min −29p · 15 min later −25p
- 2024-09-19below forecast1 min −28p · 15 min later −123p
- 2024-09-12above forecast1 min −6p · 15 min later +127panother release 15 min later
- 2024-09-05below forecast1 min −9p · 15 min later +12p
- 2024-08-29below forecast1 min −54p · 15 min later −96p
- 2024-08-22in line with forecast1 min −4p · 15 min later +40p
- 2024-08-15below forecast1 min −42p · 15 min later −124p
- 2024-08-08below forecast1 min −40p · 15 min later −44p
- 2024-08-01above forecast1 min +48p · 15 min later +89p
- 2024-07-25below forecast1 min −23p · 15 min later −52p
- 2024-07-18above forecast1 min +21p · 15 min later −17panother release 15 min later
- 2024-07-11below forecast1 min +177p · 15 min later +279p
- 2024-07-03above forecast1 min +18p · 15 min later +36p
- 2024-06-27below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +56p
- 2024-06-20above forecast1 min +10p · 15 min later −20p
- 2024-06-13above forecast1 min +97p · 15 min later +118p
- 2024-06-06above forecast1 min +16p · 15 min later −27panother release 15 min later
- 2024-05-30above forecast1 min +45p · 15 min later +58p
- 2024-05-23below forecast1 min −10p · 15 min later −44p
- 2024-05-16above forecast1 min +3p · 15 min later +6p
- 2024-05-09above forecast1 min +24p · 15 min later +111p
- 2024-05-02below forecast1 min −26p · 15 min later +15panother release 15 min later
- 2024-04-25below forecast1 min +12p · 15 min later +12p
- 2024-04-18below forecast1 min −14p · 15 min later +12p
- 2024-04-11below forecast1 min +30p · 15 min later +59panother release 15 min later
- 2024-04-04above forecast1 min +14p · 15 min later −5p
- 2024-03-28below forecast1 min −3p · 15 min later −47p
- 2024-03-21below forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −21p
- 2024-03-14below forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later +8p
- 2024-03-07in line with forecast1 min +22p · 15 min later −1panother release 15 min later
- 2024-02-29above forecast1 min +41p · 15 min later +135p
- 2024-02-22below forecast1 min −24p · 15 min later +8p
- 2024-02-15below forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +45p
- 2024-02-08below forecast1 min −14p · 15 min later −20p
- 2024-02-01above forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +101p
- 2024-01-25above forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later +26panother release 15 min later
- 2024-01-18below forecast1 min −9p · 15 min later −20p
- 2024-01-11below forecast1 min −82p · 15 min later −57p
- 2024-01-04below forecast1 min −18p · 15 min later −48p