All news · n=32 · sample
Core PCE m/m
First-minute move · last 12 months
34p
quiet minute ~11p
Biggest swing within 15 min
104p
without 2 followed by another release within 15 min
Gold higher 15 min later
22/30
73% · chance ~50% · without 2 followed by another release within 15 min
After the spike (5–60 min) the price kept going
17/28
chance ~50%
Above forecast → up
–
too few releases
Below forecast → up
100%
n=7
Bright: a direction that reliably differs from chance (p<0.01). Muted: could be chance.
Verdict: Moderate mover: typical first-minute move 34 pips over the last 12 months (n=12), against ~11 in a quiet minute at that hour · no reliable direction – the move is mixed.
Does the spike keep going or go back? · 28 releases with no other release within the hour
Each release is flipped so that its spike points up, otherwise rises and falls would cancel out. That makes even a random price look like it rose here, so the verdict, not the height of the line, says whether the move goes on.
Where the price is 15 min later · 30 releases with no other release within 15 min
Recent releases
All 32 releases
- 2026-10-29in line with forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +14p
- 2026-09-30below forecast1 min +121p · 15 min later +226p
- 2026-08-26in line with forecast1 min −107p · 15 min later −65p
- 2026-07-30below forecast1 min +30p · 15 min later +10p
- 2026-06-25in line with forecast1 min +252p · 15 min later +241p
- 2026-05-28below forecast1 min +76p · 15 min later +182p
- 2026-04-30in line with forecast1 min +28p · 15 min later −14panother release 15 min later
- 2026-04-09in line with forecast1 min +37p · 15 min later +61panother release 3 min later
- 2026-03-13in line with forecast1 min +16p · 15 min later +32p
- 2026-02-20above forecast1 min +12p · 15 min later +25p
- 2026-01-22in line with forecast1 min −52p · 15 min later +26p
- 2025-12-05in line with forecast1 min +5p · 15 min later −28p
- 2025-09-26in line with forecast1 min +32p · 15 min later +32p
- 2025-08-29in line with forecast1 min +46p · 15 min later +61p
- 2025-07-31in line with forecast1 min +6p · 15 min later +19p
- 2025-06-27above forecast1 min −24p · 15 min later −83p
- 2025-05-30in line with forecast1 min +11p · 15 min later +17p
- 2025-04-30below forecast1 min −35p · 15 min later +13p
- 2025-03-28above forecast1 min −10p · 15 min later +46p
- 2025-02-28in line with forecast1 min +2p · 15 min later −9p
- 2025-01-31in line with forecast1 min +10p · 15 min later +34p
- 2024-12-20below forecast1 min +50p · 15 min later +87p
- 2024-11-27in line with forecast1 min −22p · 15 min later −128p
- 2024-10-31in line with forecast1 min −13p · 15 min later −26p
- 2024-09-27below forecast1 min +40p · 15 min later +75p
- 2024-08-30in line with forecast1 min −5p · 15 min later −50p
- 2024-07-26in line with forecast1 min +26p · 15 min later +33p
- 2024-06-28in line with forecast1 min +28p · 15 min later +32p
- 2024-05-31below forecast1 min +20p · 15 min later +73p
- 2024-04-26in line with forecast1 min +25p · 15 min later +40p
- 2024-02-29in line with forecast1 min +41p · 15 min later +135p
- 2024-01-26in line with forecast1 min +1p · 15 min later 0p